Unemployment down to 7.8%

News you want to discuss. Threads should start with a reference or fact. Straight opinion is better housed in "The Lounge" below.
User avatar
proudliberal
Posts: 3547
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:12 pm
Location: Deep Red South, but hopefully not for long.

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby proudliberal » Sat Oct 06, 2012 11:28 pm

Marie wrote:Paraphrasing Jeff Foxworthy:

If you don't believe an increase in hiring leads to a decrease in unemployment -- you may be a righty. :-)

-Marie-


Good one! :lol:

Actually, Marie, you just gave me an idea for another thread! :idea :grin:
Necessity is the mother of invention. We don't know who the father is, because Necessity gets around alot.

User avatar
dejapig
Site Admin
Posts: 6773
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: Houston & Phoenix

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby dejapig » Sat Oct 06, 2012 11:38 pm

The Icy Commander wrote:It's just too much of a coincidence, for the last few years Americans have been hearing the consistent reports, that no president since FDR has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 8%.
It would be one thing if the rate had been fluctuating above and below 8% during the last four years, but except for Obama's very first month it's always been above.
I suspect what's happened here is that as the rate neared the magic threshold, that the administration has managed to pull a few strings, and got the Bureau of Labor Stats to release findings that show the rate below 8%.
Obama has known this was a stigma that he needed to rid himself of.
This October surprise has accomplished just that.

If you look at the trend of jobs added going from losing every month under Bush to rising the last 40 months or so under Obama, it's not such an "October surprise" that unemployment has dropped. It shouldn't be a mystery that if more people have jobs, fewer people will be unemployed. :roll:
Be who you are & say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter & those who matter don't mind. --Dr. Seuss
Keith Olbermann rocks! --dejapig

User avatar
Marie
Certified Fan
Posts: 31854
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:13 pm
Location: In front of my computer

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby Marie » Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:10 am

proudliberal wrote:
Marie wrote:Paraphrasing Jeff Foxworthy:

If you don't believe an increase in hiring leads to a decrease in unemployment -- you may be a righty. :-)

Good one! :lol:
Actually, Marie, you just gave me an idea for another thread! :idea :grin:

Uh oh, this should be good! :lol:

-Marie-
You find out what someone is really like in "battle," and Olbermann is who you want to be in a foxhole with, Patrick said. "On the air, we had each others' backs," said Olbermann.
-David Goetzl: "Keith Olbermann, Dan Patrick still brothers long after ESPN's 'Big Show'"; MediaPost blog, 4-6-2012


Image

User avatar
The Icy Commander
Grammar-impaired troll
Posts: 2399
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:01 am
Location: Oregon

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby The Icy Commander » Mon Oct 08, 2012 6:57 am

dejapig wrote:
The Icy Commander wrote:It's just too much of a coincidence, for the last few years Americans have been hearing the consistent reports, that no president since FDR has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 8%.
It would be one thing if the rate had been fluctuating above and below 8% during the last four years, but except for Obama's very first month it's always been above.
I suspect what's happened here is that as the rate neared the magic threshold, that the administration has managed to pull a few strings, and got the Bureau of Labor Stats to release findings that show the rate below 8%.
Obama has known this was a stigma that he needed to rid himself of.
This October surprise has accomplished just that.

If you look at the trend of jobs added going from losing every month under Bush to rising the last 40 months or so under Obama, it's not such an "October surprise" that unemployment has dropped. It shouldn't be a mystery that if more people have jobs, fewer people will be unemployed. :roll:


And one month before the election and after 43 straight months, it just happens to drop below 8%. Sorry, you'll never convince me that some massaging occured.

User avatar
dejapig
Site Admin
Posts: 6773
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: Houston & Phoenix

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby dejapig » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:32 am

The Icy Commander wrote:And one month before the election and after 43 straight months, it just happens to drop below 8%. Sorry, you'll never convince me that some massaging occured.

First of all, your statement contradicts what I'm sure you meant to say...you'll never convince me that massaging occured [sic]. :wink:

Second, it must be nice to live in a fact-free world--reality is whatever you want it to be! :lol:
Be who you are & say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter & those who matter don't mind. --Dr. Seuss

Keith Olbermann rocks! --dejapig

User avatar
Marie
Certified Fan
Posts: 31854
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:13 pm
Location: In front of my computer

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby Marie » Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:45 pm

You'll never convince faith-based righties that after steadily dropping for months, unemployment simply dropped some more. It's well known that the number 8 -- like the female reproductive system in the face of a legitimate rape -- is a natural barrier which mere MATH cannot overcome.

-Marie-
You find out what someone is really like in "battle," and Olbermann is who you want to be in a foxhole with, Patrick said. "On the air, we had each others' backs," said Olbermann.
-David Goetzl: "Keith Olbermann, Dan Patrick still brothers long after ESPN's 'Big Show'"; MediaPost blog, 4-6-2012


Image

User avatar
Marie
Certified Fan
Posts: 31854
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:13 pm
Location: In front of my computer

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby Marie » Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:24 pm

People with short attention spans and faith-based economists won't be interested in the following article, but it contains some valuable insights for the rest of the READING public:
Taming Volatile Raw Data for Jobs Reports
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
The New York Times
October 5, 2012

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE fell to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest level since President Obama took office. With just a month to go before the election, the news seemed too good to be true, at leastfor some Mitt Romney supporters. Almost immediately, some conservative pundits began accusing the Labor Department, which released the jobs numbers on Friday, of cooking the books. After all, the household survey -- the survey that the unemployment rate comes from -- showed that the number ofpeople with jobs rose 873,000 in September, though the gain had averaged 164,000 each month earlier this year.

These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political. The numbers come from a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000. Every month there are wild swings and no one takes them at face value. The swings usually attract less attention, though, because the political stakes are usually lower.

Image
Look how noisy these numbers are, and always have been!

The numbers, by the way, are especially imprecise (and prone to revision) when the economy is making a turn, or when regular seasonal patterns start to change. And there is reason to believe that one particular seasonal pattern -- the start of the college school year -- may be partly responsible for the big swing in September. One of the biggest sources of volatility in the last couple of months (and one of the major contributors to the big bump in job-getters in September) was the group of workers between 20 and 24 years old. Historically,the employment levels for that group have dropped sharply in September, probably because many people in their early 20s are leaving summer jobs and going back to school.

For each year since 1948, the average level of employment for this group has fallen by 398,000 from August to September. In fact, before this year, employment for this age group had risen just two times in that period: 1954 (a gain of 5,000), and 1961 (again of 22,000). This year was the third time on record that the number of people in this age group gained jobs in September, and the gain was big: 101,000.

Image
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Numbers are not adjusted for seasonality.

How to explain this major deviation from the historical trend, other than conspiracy theories? If you look back at August, an unusually high share of this age group stopped working, compared with past employment patterns in August. From 1948 to 2011, the number of those 20 to 24 who had jobs fell by an average of 98,000 from July to August. This past August, it fell by 530,000, the biggest loss on record. Over the last couple of decades, in fact, the job losses for this age group have been growing each August, suggesting that over time young people have been leaving their summer jobs earlier and earlier.

Image
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Numbers are not adjusted for seasonality.

In other words, seasonal patterns might be evolving -- people starting school and leaving their summer jobs earlier in the summer -- which has big implications for how the Labor Department digests and reports the monthly employment data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts its raw survey data to correct for seasonal patterns, and since a decline in employment is expected for those 20 to 24, the economists at the bureau increased the level of employment for this group in the seasonally adjusted numbers.

Changes in seasonal patterns like this one can introduce more error into the headline numbers, and can at least partly explain why the overall change in household employment looked so much bigger in September than seems plausible. After seasonal adjustment, the increase in employment among those 20 to 24 was given as 368,000. That’s about 42 percent of the overall increase in employment growth for people of all ages. (After making seasonal adjustments on the August figures, the employment level for 20- to 24-year-olds was reported as declining by 250,000.) All of which is to say, the bureau aims to release the most informative numbers it can. But it is seeking to measure the state of the American job market quickly, based on surveys that are inherently incomplete -- and the adjustments that are meant to fill in the gaps have their own shortcomings, particularly when seasonal trends change.

In case you still believe that the models the bureau uses are being manipulated to put President Obama in a better light, note that there are no political appointees currently serving in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The employees are all career civil servants who have worked under both Republican and Democratic administrations. (The commissioner of the bureau is supposed to be a political appointee, but that position is vacant. The acting commissioner, John M. Galvin, has held the position since January, and he is a career civil servant.)

Economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly adjust the models they use to account for factors like seasonality and the number of new companies entering the economy, and the revisions are often very large. Economists outside the bureau have been weighing in, too, both on how the latest numbers should be adjusted and what the next few months of jobs reports should look like.

A paper presented last month as part of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity series, for example, incorporated data on people flowing into and out of unemployment to forecast that the unemployment rate would most likely stagnate for a few months to come.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/ ... u_20121008

-Marie-
You find out what someone is really like in "battle," and Olbermann is who you want to be in a foxhole with, Patrick said. "On the air, we had each others' backs," said Olbermann.
-David Goetzl: "Keith Olbermann, Dan Patrick still brothers long after ESPN's 'Big Show'"; MediaPost blog, 4-6-2012


Image

1WILD1
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2010 1:14 pm

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby 1WILD1 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:56 pm

The naysayers can say what they want, the jobs report is legit.
I work for Union Pacific railroad and they have been hiring like crazy since the beginning of summer. They should have hired sooner but those crazy "people" called corporations can sometimes be behind in critical decision making.
The railroad industry is an indicator of a recovering economy and business has been booming this year here and at Warren Buffets Burlington Northern Sante Fe railroad.

User avatar
proudliberal
Posts: 3547
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:12 pm
Location: Deep Red South, but hopefully not for long.

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby proudliberal » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:49 pm

Hi, 1Wild1! Welcome to the forum! :wave

One of the biggest problems with the radical right is that they don't believe anything about Pres. Obama is legitimate-- not his birth certificate, the jobs report, the poll numbers, etc. They're living in a complete state of denial.
Necessity is the mother of invention. We don't know who the father is, because Necessity gets around alot.

User avatar
The Icy Commander
Grammar-impaired troll
Posts: 2399
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:01 am
Location: Oregon

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby The Icy Commander » Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:15 pm

The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy


If you have doubts about the official jobless rate, there's another rate you can check out instead--the "real" unemployment rate, which measures everybody considered unemployed plus a lot of others who are falling through the cracks.

[VIEW: Gallery: The 2012 MLB Playoffs]

The government calls this the "U-6" rate, and it has become a source of considerable intrigue lately. Some critics of President Obama contend that the government keeps the "real" rate a secret, because it reveals an economy that's in far worse shape than the official unemployment rate suggests. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney says frequently that while the official unemployment rate may be improving, the real rate is still terrible. "If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force," Romney said in a recent statement, "the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent."

It may be even higher than that, depending on how you count. The official unemployment rate fell in September from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, which is good news for Obama heading into the last few weeks before the November elections. The unemployment rate is now 2.1 percentage points below its 2009 peak, and at the same level as when Obama took office.

But Romney is correct to suggest that the official rate doesn't capture the depth of pain in the labor market. His rate, of nearly 11 percent, comes from an extrapolation involving the percentage of adults considered to be part of the labor force. But the government's own U-6 measure is even higher, at 14.7 percent. That's the percentage of adult Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, too discouraged to look for work or "marginally attached" to the labor force.



MORE: http://news.yahoo.com/real-unemployment ... 15397.html

User avatar
dejapig
Site Admin
Posts: 6773
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: Houston & Phoenix

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby dejapig » Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:38 pm

The Icy Commander wrote:The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy

...and saying that ignores the upward trend of continuous improvement for over 40 months. It's not perfect, but it's better. McCain wouldn't have done better. Romney wouldn't either, but I hope we don't have to find that out the hard way.
Be who you are & say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter & those who matter don't mind. --Dr. Seuss

Keith Olbermann rocks! --dejapig

User avatar
Marie
Certified Fan
Posts: 31854
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:13 pm
Location: In front of my computer

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby Marie » Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:23 pm

The Icy Commander wrote:
The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Still Really Lousy
By Rick Newman
U.S.News & World Report
MORE: http://news.yahoo.com/real-unemployment ... 15397.html

“Slow and steady wins the race,” said Aesop.

Obama spoke earlier of "an economy built to last." Well, slow, steady improvement is more apt to last than wild economic swings.

Who needs a bipolar economy?

-Marie-
You find out what someone is really like in "battle," and Olbermann is who you want to be in a foxhole with, Patrick said. "On the air, we had each others' backs," said Olbermann.
-David Goetzl: "Keith Olbermann, Dan Patrick still brothers long after ESPN's 'Big Show'"; MediaPost blog, 4-6-2012


Image

User avatar
The Icy Commander
Grammar-impaired troll
Posts: 2399
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:01 am
Location: Oregon

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby The Icy Commander » Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:14 pm

Jack Welch: I Was Right About That Strange Jobs Report


Imagine a country where challenging the ruling authorities—questioning, say, a piece of data released by central headquarters—would result in mobs of administration sympathizers claiming you should feel "embarrassed" and labeling you a fool, or worse.

Soviet Russia perhaps? Communist China? Nope, that would be the United States right now, when a person (like me, for instance) suggests that a certain government datum (like the September unemployment rate of 7.8%) doesn't make sense.Unfortunately for those who would like me to pipe down, the 7.8% unemployment figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last week is downright implausible. And that's why I made a stink about it.

Before I explain why the number is questionable, though, a few words about where I'm coming from. Contrary to some of the sound-and-fury last week, I do not work for the Mitt Romney campaign. I am definitely not a surrogate. My wife, Suzy, is not associated with the campaign, either. She worked at Bain Consulting (not Bain Capital) right after business school, in 1988 and 1989, and had no contact with Mr. Romney.The Obama campaign and its supporters, including bigwigs like David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs, along with several cable TV anchors, would like you to believe that BLS data are handled like the gold in Fort Knox, with gun-carrying guards watching their every move, and highly trained, white-gloved super-agents counting and recounting hourly.Let's get real. The unemployment data reported each month are gathered over a one-week period by census workers, by phone in 70% of the cases, and the rest through home visits. In sum, they try to contact 60,000 households, asking a list of questions and recording the responses.

More in Opinion












http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... on_LEADTop






User avatar
dejapig
Site Admin
Posts: 6773
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:36 pm
Location: Houston & Phoenix

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby dejapig » Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:34 pm

Even if it's a crappy system that allows a statistical fluke to show better numbers, it's still the same system employed by every administration for years. The Obama administration didn't do anything hinky. :roll:
Be who you are & say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter & those who matter don't mind. --Dr. Seuss

Keith Olbermann rocks! --dejapig

User avatar
AaronCT
Posts: 839
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:00 am
Location: Connecticut
Contact:

Re: Unemployment down to 7.8%

Postby AaronCT » Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:02 pm

The Icy Commander wrote:And one month before the election and after 43 straight months, it just happens to drop below 8%. Sorry, you'll never convince me that some massaging occured.


Don't worry there's a diagnosis for your disorder, psychologists call it cognitive dissonance.

    Dissonance is aroused when people are confronted with information that is inconsistent with their beliefs. If the dissonance is not reduced by changing one's belief, the dissonance can result in misperception or rejection or refutation of the information, seeking support from others who share the beliefs, and attempting to persuade others to restore consonance.
"Overcome the angry by non-anger; overcome the wicked by goodness; overcome the miser by generosity; overcome the liar by truth." ~The Buddha

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." ~Mark Twain


Return to “What Story Are YOU Talking About?”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests